Andy beshear crying12/8/2023 ![]() Honestly, though, he might just need to run up the number high enough in Louisville and Lexington. Grossberg: Northern Kentucky and/or some of the Louisville and Lexington suburbs. candidate & elections analyst: The Northern Kentucky region at-large and Oldham County. Rudy: Hold his own in the east and run up the score in Louisville and Lexington.Ĭhris Kirkwood, Lexington, University of Kentucky political science Ph.D. I won’t say all of Northern Kentucky is a must-win because Boone is a conservative county, but he does need to do well in Kenton and Campbell, counties where he won somewhat narrowly in 2019. Jazmin Smith: He probably needs to get 65% of the vote in Jefferson County to win. I think he might lose some of Appalachia that he won in ‘19, but win Fayette County by a much larger margin this time. Robert Kahne, Louisville, Kentucky Democratic Party State Central Executive Committee member & co-host of “My Old Kentucky Podcast” : Repeat the 2019 blueprint: win Louisville and Lexington big, win Kenton and Campbell counties, win small cities, win chunks of Appalachia. Meanwhile, there’s nothing meaningful for Cameron to run on, and he was forced to develop culture war issues. He way out-performed all expectations on that score and oversaw record economic growth. Daniel Grossberg, D-Louisville: He will have crossover appeal because of his remarkable handling of COVID, as well as several other crises. Narrowing the margins in the collar counties around Fayette.Ĭhris Wiest, Kenton County, Northern Kentucky attorney and politico: Moderate women in purple areas of the state, who Andy will both need to convince and then convince to turn out, while not losing by large margins in deep red areas. Rebecca Blankenship, Berea, Democratic State Central Executive Committee member & state’s first openly transgender elected official: High turnout in the cities, strong performances in places like Bowling Green, Northern Kentucky, and northeastern Kentucky. Phillip Wheeler, R-Pikeville: I think Beshear has to maintain his 2019 margins in Louisville and Lexington and increase his share in Northern Kentucky and Eastern Kentucky. Beshear will retain the Governor’s Mansion by securing votes from not just Democrats, but when Republicans and independents across the state choose Beshear as their top of the ticket. Morgan Eaves, Richmond, lobbyist and Democratic political consultant: Gov. Given the former president’s popularity in Kentucky, the path to victory would be very narrow if he cannot pull in some Trump vote. Larry Glover, Lexington, talk radio host: Convincing Trump supporters to cross over and support a Democratic governor. Moderate to conservative Democrats will not cross over in significant numbers to back Cameron, and a reasonable number of Republican voters will support Beshear. TJ Litafik, Lexington, Republican strategist: Beshear’s path to victory looks largely the same as it did in 2019 - big wins in urban Kentucky and the “collar” and college counties. We do not move forward in this state leading with hate. Stay positive, stay focused and continue to speak about vision and unity for Kentucky. Hannah Drake, Louisville, activist & writer: The governor has a clear path to victory if he continues doing what he is doing. Jazmin Smith, Louisville, co-host of Democratic show “My Old Kentucky Podcast”: Beshear’s path to victory is similar to 2019 - turn out voters big in Louisville and Lexington and do well in the medium-size cities, like Henderson, Paducah, Frankfort, Bowling Green, Richmond, Covington, etc. House Majority Floor Leader Steven Rudy, R-Paducah: Low turnout out in rural areas. ![]() Here’s what they had to say when we asked these questions: The Herald-Leader reached out to more than a dozen people involved in Kentucky politics to get their perspective. So what needs to happen for Beshear to win a second term? How could he falter? What would a Beshear win, or loss, say about the state?
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